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The state Assembly election next Wednesday in promises to be unprecedented and unpredictable. Coming at the culmination of five most turbulent years of politics during which the state witnessed three chief ministers taking office and two major regional parties splitting, the election this time is confusing for voters as well as the poll pundits.
With every party in poll fray discarding its ideology and cherished values of public life , for the first time in 62 years of state’s electoral politics it would be a no holds barred contest in all the 288 constituencies . Power politics at its worst is at play. The two main combines- the ruling Mahayuti comprising BJP, Shiv Sena (Shinde) faction and NCP (Ajit Pawar) faction and the Maha Vikas Aghadi of the Congress, NCP (Sharad Pawar) and Shiv Sena (Uddhav) are in a desperate war to get control of the country’s financial capital Mumbai and Maharashtra.
This is the first state election after a split in the NCP and the Sena. What is disconcerting is that the two main national parties with which they have allied, the Congress and the BJP, look equally unsure of themselves. The momentum built by MVA’s good show winning 31 seats in Lok Sabha against 17 by the Mahayuti seems to have evaporated after recent win in Haryana state polls by the BJP. The lack of confidence to win has led to a flood of freebies offered by the ruling Mahatuti as well as the MVA to woo the voters.
Politics in the progressive state took a murky turn in 2019 with an unnatural alliance called MVA coming into existence when the otherwise rabid Hindu outfit Shiv Sena, joined hands with an avowed secular Congress and its ideological sibling NCP. The BJP and undivided Shiv Sena were in pre-poll alliance and had a clear mandate. But Uddhav Thackeray’s ambition of becoming chief minister came in the way. Breaking the saffron alliance, Thackeray went with NCP and Congress to rule the state for 30 months.
A frustrated BJP and Devendra Fadnavis and the NCP faction led by Ajit Pawar tried to cobble together a government in a pre-down political drama. But that experiment lasted only 80 hours much to the embarrassment of both Fadnavis and Ajit Pawar.
The BJP then dislodged the Thackeray regime splitting the Shiv Sena. An overwhelming majority of the elected Sena MLAs led by Eknath Shinde parted ways with Thackeray. In a move that startled all, Shinde was anointed as the chief minister while Devendra Fadnavis was downgraded to be a deputy CM. In another political turmoil, Ajit Pawar and a large chunk of NCP MLAs joined Shinde and Fadnavis to form the Mahayuti government. The Mahayuti looked as unnatural and wobbly as the Maha Vikas Aghadi, if not more.
The old warhorse Sharad Pawar as well as Thackeray deeply hurt by the division of their respective parties and losing their party symbols are now fighting a battle for survival. In this they have as an ally the grand old party, the Congress, that apparently forgot its winning ways and is looking for revival. The 2024 elections could thus well be a watershed event in the state’s politics. With many imponderables, each party is finding it tough to woo the voters.
It’s no wonder they have bared fangs and done away with masks of civility in this desperate battle for power. The tone and tenor of the leaders campaigning for their respective parties, right from Narendra Modi, Rahul Gandhi, Uddhav Thackeray is so bitter and jarring. The narratives each party is unleashing has left the voters disoriented as there is no way to find out the truth behind allegations hurled against each other. The unholy nexus of disparate forces with power as the sole goal has now given rise to fierce offering of freebies with a total disregard to economic considerations. The Mahayuti’s Ladki Bahin scheme is countered by a bigger dole by MVA for women, jobless youth and crisis-ridden farmers of the state.
Slogans of both the Mahayuti and MVA threaten to further fragment the society on lines of caste and religion. The build-up of Maratha reservation carefully orchestrated by politicians behind the curtains, has brought the Marathas in confrontation with the other backward classes (OBC). Never before has caste divide been used so blatantly for electoral gains. The MVA is trying to capitalise on Rahul Gandhi’s Samvidhan Samman Sameelans . For the Mahayuti , Modi is trying to turn the tables on the Congress accusing it of having scant regard for the Constitution of India.
Two months ago the MVA was sure of a cakewalk to power but now the Mahayuti seems to have an edge. More so because state and parliamentary elections are different when it comes to voting patterns over local issues and caste loyalties. A general calculation shows that Mahayuti constituents who together have over 200 sitting MLAs may be able to retain power even if they manage to retain 140 seats and look around for some support from independents who will be available in plenty as scores from each party are in poll fray as rebels. The dance of democracy may end up throwing surprises even after the votes are counted.
